They include Ordu (6 seats) and Mersin (10 seats), but not Ankara (29 seats). D’Hondt favours smaller parties, meaning that a large party is always going to be more vulnerable in a larger district if it has already won quite a few seats.īut the seven districts in my list above are not Turkey’s seven largest districts. Istanbul alone sent 82 MPs to parliament at the last election. Now, some of these electoral districts are huge. ![]() Highlighted in red: Adana, Bursa, Mersin, Istanbul (1st district), Izmir (1st), Kayseri and Ordu. These are the government’s most vulnerable marginals, the seats they most narrowly won at the last election and are most likely to lose next time. More interesting is where the AK Party lost those seven seats. The AK Party loses seven seats two to the CHP, five to the MHP, which gets the greater windfall because the D’Hondt method favours smaller parties. The result is not very different from 2011. It takes the national change in vote share for each party, runs the D’Hondt calculation method in each of the 84 districts, then adds up all 550 seats. However, it is still useful because it produces a result based on changes to the last election result in each electoral district. It ignores a number of important factors: regional variation (the change in vote share wouldn’t be identical around the country) Kurdish support (this projection assumes the same 35 independent MPs as in 2011) and local issues, which can produce a result against the national trend. This is a uniform swing projection and inherently crude. ![]() A clear AK Party lead that doubles the CHP’s support and an MHP that struggles to cross the 10 per cent electoral threshold is the 2011 general election all over again.įor a projection of how these results would be reflected in parliament, see this: The survey also showed a drop in support for the CHP (17.6%, down nine points) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, 9.8% percent).īut despite each party’s reduced support, this survey should look rather familiar. Granted, we are at that stage when the next election is years away and the last one a distant memory, but such large voter apathy in a country where election day turnouts average between 80 and 90% is remarkable.Īmong respondents who said they definitely would vote, Metropoll found AK Party support had slumped to 39.1%, a full ten percentage points below its landslide 2011 election result. Here’s a prediction that won’t astonish anyone: the CHP will not win Turkey’s next general election in two years’ time.Ī victory for the main opposition party is a monumentally difficult thing to achieve not just because of the party’s current leadership woes, but because the governing AK Party has a solid hold on power.Ī Metropoll survey at the end of December, which showed a near-uniform swing in support away from the three main parties, reported a full 25 per cent of voters saying they are undecided on who to support, or would spoil their ballot or not vote at all. To win the next election, Turkey’s opposition party has a mountain to climb
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